Gilder’s Guideposts Newsletters
The Fed’s Magical Thinking
I woke up to a strange headline in the Wall Street Journal yesterday: “Oil’s Run to $100 Tests Fed.” Wondering what $100 a barrel oil had to do with the Federal Reserve, I read further. The Journal’s concern was that $100 oil would endanger the Fed’s chance of bringing about a “soft landing,” killing inflation […]
Guess We Can Stop Worrying About China Swallowing the World
The China Hawks are about to get their wish. They are going to see what the world looks like with China poor, backwards and communist. The Chinese economy is at even greater risk than the headlines suggest. Western analysts are missing the gravity of the collapse because, just as in their analysis of the U.S. […]
ARK Investment’s Cathie Wood Agrees to Speak at COSM!
Last week, we introduced you to the tirelessly savvy Peter Zeihan’s prophesies of five key technologies that will transform our economy over the next decade. The technologies feature: artificial intelligence, satellites, bio-genetic tailored drugs, shale industry biproducts, and GMO seed based on AI agricultural advances that will radically improve what he calls the “fruit-to-stalk” ratio […]
Think and Grow Rich
Why do small-cap stocks, on average and over time, produce larger returns than large-cap stocks? Wall Street has a standard answer. Small cap stocks, like rowboats on the Atlantic, are more risky than the big ocean liners of the S&P 500. They get tossed around in storms. One leak can send them to the bottom. […]
Peter Zeehan’s Five Paths to Abundance…and One More
Peter Zeihan is one of my favorite intellectual provocateurs. Flamboyant, cocky, often cogent, and savvy about science, technology and geopolitics, he would have been perfect for my COSM conference from November 1-3 in Bellevue, Washington. But he said he was “all tied up”…maybe next year. So we’ll have to get along with a constellation of […]
Life After Silicon
As our world breaks down into teetering towers of babble and bombast, we can turn to politicians running on platforms of lockdown and war. Or we can embrace a superabundant new era of redemptive technology. The currently fashionable name for this haven from a heinous world is the “metaverse.” Conceived by Neal Stevenson in his […]
Be Not Afraid
Let’s all “stare into the abyss and chew on glass!” That’s how Elon Musk depicts the crazed mental and even gastro-dental distress of people faced with threats to the survival of their paradigms, their companies, and even our precious planet. Today, the abyss-staring and glass-chewing focuses on artificial intelligence (AI) and climate change angst. The […]
The Troubles of Chairman Xi
It was less than a year ago that the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party named Xi Jinping ruler for life. It’s shaping up to be a tough life. Xi has real troubles. Getting past them would require some dramatic backpedaling. If he can pull that off, he could save himself and serve his […]
An Act of War or Just Another Two Minute Hate?
If it is true that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has planted malware “deep inside the networks controlling power grids, communications systems and water supplies that feed military bases in the United States and around the world,” as The New York Times reports, then China has committed an act of war. If so, the U.S. […]
The European Grasshopper Loses to the American Ant
The Wall Street Journal has made a remarkable discovery. He who does not work (much) does not eat (much). Europe, says the Journal, is descending into poverty because Europeans are, um, lazy. Based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) figures, in 2008 the Eurozone and U.S. economies were roughly the same size with U.S. GDP at […]