Don’t Worry America, Israel is Behind You
More than a decade ago on trip to Israel, Richard V bought a tee shirt inscribed with the slogan above. The street vendor, handing him the tee with a slightly shy (for an Israeli!) and ironic smile said, “I know, it’s other way around, right?”
Maybe not. As things stand today, no nation is more important to the survival of the United States than Israel. If ever there should be an all-out missile attack against the United States, Israel is the reason we will survive it—provided we stop looking gift horses in the mouth.
More to the point, it is thanks to Israel that such an attack is increasingly unlikely. Not only the United States, but every nation on earth will owe Israel a debt of thanks for ending the era of the nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that has terrified the world since the first Atlas missile system was declared operational in 1959.
It was the ICBM, especially, after the invention of the MIRV warhead (multiple independently targeted reentry vehicle) that destabilized Mutual Assured Destruction. The MIRV raised the possibility that either the United States or the Soviets might be able to launch a successful nuclear first strike against the other by destroying the enemy’s nuclear arsenal on the ground.
Israel, more than any other nation, is breaking that threat.
The whole world by now knows of Iron Dome, Israeli anti-missile system that has been routinely shooting down short-range rockets launched against it from Gaza and Lebanon since it went operational in 2011. What is less well known is that Iron Dome was merely the first step on a learning curve leading to systems that today are downing mid-to-long range ballistic missiles, while still in the space portion of their flight.
The Iron Dome system itself is widely disparaged by Israel’s enemies as a primitive tool effective only against “home-made” rockets fired by underfunded guerillas. To the contrary, even on the day it was launched the Iron Dome was the most advanced defense ever deployed against short-range ballistic missiles. Critics whine that the system is “only 90% effective” but no other air defense system has ever come close to that record.
Reports that Iron Dome was overwhelmed by the massive attacks on Oct. 7 are mostly propaganda. Opposing some 2,500 incoming missiles (Hamas claims 5,000), with batteries mounting circa 1,000 interceptors, was bound to produce a less than 90% success rate. Nevertheless, damage from the attacks was remarkably light considering. Iron Dome has saved thousands of lives and forestalled probably many billions of dollars in damage to homes, businesses, factories, and even schools.
So sophisticated is the system that the United States, despairing of developing something as good under a U.S. weapons development system smothered in bureaucracy and “oversight,” long ago made the Israelis a deal. America would largely fund the actual missiles if Israel would share the intellectual property of the system. The United States did fund two Iron Dome batteries of its own. But no worries! The American defense establishment managed to shield us from the invasive anti-missile species despite having nothing comparable in actual service.
Now Iron Dome’s successor projects promise to liberate the world from the long-range ballistic missile threat. David’s Sling, operational since 2017, is designed to shoot down medium–range ballistic missiles and rockets with ranges up to 190 miles.
Developed in response the disappointing performance of U.S. Patriot missiles against Iraqi Scuds during the first Gulf War, the Sling has proved itself in combat repeatedly. In May of last year, it downed two Iranian-made Badr-3 rockets (with a claimed range of circa 160 km) launched from Gaza. During the current conflict, it has downed at least one Ayyash-250 with a claimed range of 250 km. For the Sling, as with the Iron Dome, Israel supplied the brains via its Rafael development group, while the United States put up the money for RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX), formerly Raytheon Technologies Corporation, (NYSE: to manufacture the weapons at scale.
More impressive yet is the Arrow system designed to intercept much longer-range missiles during spaceflight. A regional-range and potential ICBM killer, the program originated with Israel’s decision to participate in the Strategic Defense Initiative launched by President Reagan. In the United States, SDI long made only pitiful progress, snarled by political opposition, committee meetings galore, and outright ridicule at Reagan’s idea of “hitting a bullet with a bullet.”
That’s just what Arrow does.
On October 31, 2023, the Arrow-2 system intercepted a missile incoming from Yemen Red Sea (presumably fired by the Houthis) at an altitude of 60 miles. That’s well above the stratosphere and the mesosphere at the edge of true space, making the encounter the first space combat in human history. Just over a week later, on Nov. 9, the even more capable Arrow-3 system downed another ballistic missile from Yemen targeting the port city of Eilat, a distance of more than 1,000 miles.
Arrow, like Iron Dome and David’s sling, is a product of Israeli brains and U.S. bucks with Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) as the American partner.
Israel’s contribution goes beyond her engineering prowess. The United States could have blazed this trail, as President Reagan wanted us to do. Israel’s greatest gift to us, under the pressure of necessity, was that it did not give up. Now that Israel has embarrassed the United States and European defense establishments by doing what they proclaimed impossible, expect the laggards to catch up and start doing their bit. Without Israel’s example, the United States and Europe would not be in the game.
Ultimately, laser weapons will replace hitting bullets with bullets. Lasers propagating at the speed of light, rapid-firing multiple “rounds” each costing not tens of thousands but a few dollars’ worth of electricity will do to missiles (and all aircraft) what the machine gun did to the cavalry charge. After several decades of agonizingly slow development, in just the past couple years the Americans, the Brits, the Chinese, and the Russians have all demonstrated truly impressive missile-killing laser weapons.
Once again, however, Israel that may get there first for the same reason it was the first to hit a bullet with a bullet.
As Edward Luttwak shows in his eye-opening new book “The Art of Military Innovation: Lessons From the Israel Defense Forces,” Israel, under existential threat, brings new weapons to the field faster than any other country. This is in part because it is willing to learn on the job, introducing novel weapons while other defense establishments are still critiquing, still meeting in committee, still making the perfect enemy of the good.
Already deployed is Israel’s “Iron Beam,” a relatively short-range laser weapon that will supplement Iron Dome. Today, the Iron Beam lasers are in some respects inferior to the Iron Dome missiles. Still relatively low power, the beam will not destroy more durable targets instantaneously, having to stay on target for a few seconds. Beam’s great advantage, however, is the low cost of each shot. No one wants to waste a $20,000 Iron Dome missile on a $200 drone.
With Iron Beam operational, and its several times more powerful successor already in development — Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) is the U.S. partner — Israel is already on the learning curve. Our bet is that the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) will have true laser weapons capable of taking down regional or intercontinental missiles before any other Western Power.
Don’t worry America, Israel is behind you.